After a high intensity 12-day war between Israel and Iran, a ceasefire was brokered in late June 2025. Israel declared its objectives achieved, namely the degradation of Iran's nuclear and missile infrastructure. But this is not the end of the story, it is just the beginning of a more complex confrontation with Iran.
While we are left with question marks about the extent of the damage caused to Iran’s nuclear program, there is no doubt about the significant vulnerabilities exposed by the campaign. Israel's intelligence penetrated deep into Iran and the Israel Air Force carried out a precise and deadly air campaign and high-quality defense of the State of Israel.
The ceasefire represents a middle stage between war and a formal agreement, is a dangerous stage in which there is no agreement on the terms, no agreement on what is considered a violation. And when each side can interpret the reality and conditions through its own lens, the window for further escalation is very narrow.
Iran has not surrendered and will do everything to become a significant force in the Middle East and even today Tehran poses several risks towards Israel.
The main risks on the day after the war:
- Iran's nuclear rebound – Iran may secretly accelerate its nuclear program out of fear of future Israeli strikes. Iran can, with allies like North Korea (which has already done this in the past, though not with Iran), obtain ready-made capabilities that it is missing to assemble one bomb on its territory.
- Iran's revenge – Iran might launch a preemptive counterattack as part of restoring deterrence, retaliation, or as a miscalculation.
- Proxy war across the Middle East – an unlikely option, but Iran could shift strategy from direct confrontation to asymmetric warfare using proxies, relying on the Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias from Syria and Iraq rather than Hezbollah.
- Diplomatic breakdown - if Iran refuses to return to nuclear negotiations and the USA or EU reimpose stronger sanctions, dialogue could collapse and drag the entire region into a global conflict.
- Iran might begin to restore its capabilities damaged in the war, and this will be seen as a pretext for a renewed confrontation.
It is too early to eulogize Iran, it still has significant capabilities to threaten Israel, including hundreds of long range missiles and UAV's. On the other hand, alongside the risks, there are also quite a few chances or opportunities that Israel can and should exploit in the meantime, including:
- Investigate the war, improve and refine the intelligence and the assessment of the damage in Iran. This is the starting point for the next round.
- Reassess the concept of home front protection and warning systems. What is the safest and most appropriate place to be during a missile attack from Iran?
- Continue to strengthen the cooperation with the American partners in defense and offense, and perhaps even expand it across the entire region. We saw the benefit and importance of such support, it was a real force multiplier.
- Enrich the toolbox of solutions and capabilities in defense and offense. Assume that Iran has learned from the last war and will challenge us next time. Israel needs to maximize our defense and active air defense capabilities, fill the gaps in our defensive architecture (like the city of Beer Sheva), to shape the multi-tier integrated concept with the Israeli systems and the Americans as well. We also need to continue the development of the next generation of missile defense systems, without losing any time. The next confrontation might be tomorrow or a few months from today.
- Work together with the USA and uphold Israel's principles for an agreement with Iran while preserving the country’s national security interests. Israel should put itself in the American negotiating room with Iran the day after the war.
The new reality facing Iran places us at a crossroads, and it’s a complicated situation. Victory in this round is just one chapter in a long campaign to prevent Iran from posing an existential threat to the State of Israel.
Israel could "win" militarily in the short term, but true victory hinges on limiting escalation, maintaining international support, and steering clear of a prolonged regional conflict. The war would not likely eliminate the Iranian threat, rather it would have reshape it. We do not have the privilege to sit back and be satisfied with the battlefield gains of last month.
Israel cannot afford to live under the constant shadow of an unresolved security conflict with Iran, where at any moment renewed hostiles could break out leading to days of fighting or rounds of missile fire. After enduring 21 months of a multi-front war, it is imperative to take advantage of the military achievements to create a new reality, with better conditions for Israel national security. The path forward must include ending wars and cycles of conflicts and expanding regional arrangements and normalization.
The writer: Brig. Gen. (ret.) Zvika Haimovich is a former Israel Air Defense Forces Commander