Vladimir Putin must be laughing his head off. President Donald Trump just gave him 50 days to make peace with Ukraine. The Russian leader probably remembers that day in April when Trump held up a chart and said he’d have 90 trade deals in 90 days; or when Trump said he could end Putin’s war against Ukraine in his first 24 hours.
Still waiting on all that. Putin knows Trump’s nickname is TACO because of his flexible deadlines and tendency to chicken out. That label didn’t come from the left-wing press but the Financial Times.
He knows Trump likes to threaten and bully friends and small countries while showing undue deference to autocrats running China, Turkey, and Hungary – and, of course, Russia. Trump has made no secret that he is not a fan of Ukraine or its feisty president, Volodymyr Zelensky. Any doubts ended when the president and Vice President JD Vance ambushed their visitor on live television from the Oval Office for not being sufficiently sycophantic and grateful for all America has done for his country.
That diplomatic embarrassment, one of many since Trump’s team of amateurs and extremists took over the nation’s foreign policy, suggests that this week’s policy switch could prove as ephemeral as so many administration actions and pronouncements.
Is Trump bluffing?
Today, Putin may feel confident Trump is bluffing judging by his on-again off-again tariff wars – which are already undermining American influence worldwide – but also because he knows in the MAGA leader’s eyes, Ukraine was former President Joe Biden’s war, and everything Biden supported should be opposed. And if Ukraine loses, it’s Biden’s loss, not Trump’s.
The big mystery is: Whatever made Trump think he could sway Putin in the first place? He’s living in a fantasy world of his own making. Putin knew it that moment on stage in Helsinki in 2018 when Trump sided with the former KGB colonel over the unanimous finding of US intelligence leadership about Russian interference in the 2016 election.
“President Putin says it’s not Russia. I don’t see any reason why it would be,” Trump told reporters.
All the US intelligence agencies had concluded that Putin authorized a campaign of cyberattacks and fake news stories against Hillary Clinton in 2016. It wasn’t just those from the Biden administration; some of Trump’s own people agreed.
There was no proven collusion, as Trump rightly says, but considerable interference, which he denies.
Trump couldn’t handle the possibility that anyone other than himself had helped him win. Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan said there was “no question” Moscow had been meddling in the American election. Even Trump’s own director of national intelligence, Dan Coats, agreed.
That may help explain why in his second term, Trump made sure to surround himself with sycophantic toadies, like Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana), CIA director John Ratcliffe, and DNI director Tulsi Gabbard.
Russian businessman and Putin confidant Yevgeny Prigozhin confirmed it on social media in 2022, adding, “we will continue to interfere.”
Trump has begrudgingly come around to supporting Ukraine, maybe because Putin betrayed the faith he had in him.
The US president agreed this week to increase weapons shipments to Ukraine, but on condition that the Europeans pay us for them. Kyiv particularly needs more Patriot air defense systems.
Putin probably isn’t losing sleep over Trump’s threats. Russia’s leader knows that his American counterpart has a short attention span (except for grudges), and he may be counting on an impatient Trump to turn up the pressure on Ukraine – as he tried earlier – to give in to Russia’s demands. Putin also knows that visions of a Nobel Peace Prize have taken residence in Trump’s head.
Konstantin Kovachev, chair of the Russian Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, dismissed Trump’s threats as “hot air” that could easily shift.
Trump's threats of sanctions and tariffs may be empty
Russia is no Canada or Mexico or other country dependent on American markets and trade. Presidential threats of “very severe tariffs” and new sanctions may be empty if Trump chickens out and fails to carry through. The United States does very little business with Russia, though threats to target others who do could impact Moscow’s resources.
The White House is talking about 100% taxes on imports of Russian goods and another 100% on countries that buy Russian oil, gas, and other energy products.
“Sanctions that punish Russia’s energy sector and its customers,” The New York Times said, “would hurt Moscow much more than tariffs on the low level of goods Russia sends to the United States.”
The Guardian reported Russian officials largely dismissed Trump’s threats as “far less serious than anticipated.” It noted that the main Moscow stock index gained more than 2.5% following Trump’s announcement.
Trump said he’s “disappointed” in Putin and holds out “hope we don’t have to do it.” Maybe another one of those flattering and friendly phone calls he likes to reminisce about might soothe the seething president.
Trump considers himself the Putin whisperer. “He’s fooled a lot of people. He fooled Clinton, Bush, Obama, Biden – he didn’t fool me,” he said Monday at an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The evidence strongly suggests otherwise.
Putin has his billions stashed outside of Russia, revelations of which ultimately led Alexei Navalny to prison and death. Putin controls the media as Trump only dreams of, and he has public opinion on his side.
Is Trump really taking a new approach or is this another of his weaves? Is it an empty threat? Will he chicken out?
I hope he stands tough and belatedly recognizes the threat Putin poses, and that he realizes this war is not some border dispute but a Rubicon in the Russian leader’s plan to rebuild the Russian/Soviet empire he longs for.
Poland and the Baltics know they’re next if Ukraine falls. The security of Europe and, indeed, the United States hinges on whether Trump and his team of preening amateurs learn that. The past seven months of pinball diplomacy and White House bluster are not encouraging signs.
The writer is a Washington-based journalist, consultant, lobbyist, and a former legislative director at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.